The Statistical Truth About Coronavirus COVID-19
If you have been to the grocery store or the local Walmart then you know that it’s a trying time to be raising children. Look at your social media page and count the people out of work or with severely reduced income as a result of the COVID-19 Pandemic A/K/A Coronavirus. Check out your retirement portfolio. Try to buy some Toilette Paper. It took me nearly 12 hours of shopping to buy what normally takes me 2 hours to buy and bring home. It feels a lot like out way of life is being turned upside down. It feels a lot more like Venezuela than it does the U.S.A. when I can’t buy syrup for waffles or milk for cereal. And in the midst of it you might find yourself being an American. Leaving behind some of the bits of things that are still laying around the shelves for the next person. Just taking what you need for the next 2 weeks and no more. Or lending some of your extra goods to someone who has been a little bit blindsided by this whole scare. And if you’re looking for the bright side of things and want to try to get a better perspective, I have done some statistical analysis that will help ease your mind a little. If you would like to see how I got my figures, just look up the number of “Coronavirus Deaths” or “COVID-19 Deaths” and divide it by the number of total reported cases for that country. Move the decimal over 2 places to the right to get a percent figure.
Much of what is happening is only temporary. COVID-19 will pass and so will the mass hoarding by some few people and the shortage of basic goods. Our country has a vast network of suppliers for mostly all necessary goods and many can be made here in the USA. Americans are resilient, and we will make due. This is one of the first large scale Pandemics that many of us have seen in our lives. It is a fantastic pandemic fire drill. But the reality of the situation is far different than the reaction that is taking place. I am not sure what the reason is for this but keep in mind that most estimates of the death rate of this disease are 2% or lower. Some as low as .6 percent.
Now if you look at the numbers in Italy, you see that the death rate is close to 7% by most counts. However, in South Korea the rate is much lower. Why is this? Because South Korea rolled out a robust testing system very early on. They were able to test a significantly higher percentage of the population much more quickly than Italy was. For this reason, people who had tested positive for COVID-19 but were not severely ill were included in the statistics. This causes the number of deaths per number of cases to fall and ultimately gives a clearer perspective of the death rate. Italy still has not reached the large-scale testing that is should have to combat this disease. Their death rate for the disease may be far lower than is currently estimated if the number of total cases is grossly under reported.
Here in the US the CDC and government figures show an approximate 2% mortality rate. But if you read the news you will see story after story of people who called their doctors or government health officials with complaints of symptoms identical to COVID-19. Many of them have been turned away and not even advised to quarantine themselves. No testing would be performed. Does this sound like a government that wants to know about every single coronavirus case? Take a look at what Connecticut officials just released. They may have thousands of COVID-19 cases, but they don’t have tests to determine the real figures. If there are significantly more coronavirus cases than what is being let on, then would that mean that the statistical mortality rate is so much closer to the common seasonal flu that we should not be closing up our shops and cancelling all our plans.
Time will tell what the real numbers will settle on. We will get through this together as one nation and as one world. Over time much of this madness will subside and things will get back to normal. A vaccine is in the works and the healthcare system in our country is strong. Until more is truly known about the disease, encourage people to follow the government guidelines in your home state. Do what you can to stop the spread of this disease, and use this as a massive Pandemic Fire Drill so that you will be prepared in the even of a real emergency such as an Ebola pandemic or the like, where the death rate percentage is in the teens or twenties. Because let’s face it folks, with the worldwide government and health systems ability to prevent the spread of this disease, if it were Ebola, we’d all be in what Mr. Trump would call “Yuge Trouble”…..”Big League”